Forum >> Trial period thoughts

Opened by: jaycee
Opening date: 27 July 2010 9:28
Number of entries: 30
Last entry: 26 April 2011 17:09
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mauibartender wrote: 26 April 2011 17:09

Jaycee, I am responding because although you might not post again- I suspect you might look to see if anyone responded.  You probably have me categorized as "an affiliate with hidden agenda"  but the truth is that I joined right around the same time as you did fresh from the internet like you.  Now I do have one advantage- the person who referred me here is a professional trader from a firm in Switzerland who actually traded the signals here for nearly a year beforehand- due to the fact that they were indeed more profitable than his own trading could be.  Since then, I have networked with quite a few others here trying to get the most out of this and constructively make the best of what I could.  I even offered to connect with you, way back in the beginning, but you did not respond.  All of the people I have connected with here all have a couple things in common.  1) They unanimously agree that the past performance review has been honest and true, 2) lately it has been slow to update and the performance has severely degraded.  When in the past I have responded to people's negative posts it is for a couple of reasons.  First, I have been trading long enough to know that some people were blowing the whistle far too early to tell is there really was an issue, or if it was just the normal inconsistencies of trading, and also- the way they wrote the message was attacking and unconstructive.  After owning a couple restaurant/bars I realize what it's like to run a business from Silvertrader's point of view, and am quite aware of how one might lose interest in their business when they are catering to a bunch of customers in an agressive negative environment- it literally sucks the zest of life- and your ability to love your business and do what it takes to keep it on top- right out of you.  I came here pretty skeptical as well,  although I had ample testimony from people that possibly couldn't have had any motivation to lie , and had mostly been members for close to a year.  My stance is that Silvertrader has always been honest, and not a scam artist.  I will agree with you in that I have myself reached a threshold and do not think that the system here has been robust enough to adapt to the current conditions.  In forex that could all change in a day, but the fact is we are here to be profitable and that must be the number one priority.  I have the luxury of falling back on my own trading to get by, I have no other job and trading is my life.  I joined here because the pips being made at the time far surpassed my abilities.  I doubled my account the first month and lost it the next- just like you.  I stopped trading the system and just went back to trading for myself as that was yielding better results.  I still stick around though, because I know that the longer term time frames (the ones we trade here) have been volatile and sideways, the worst conditions for this system, as it is a long term system to catch the beginning of large trends, but the markets cannot stay like this forever.  I am sorry about your experiences and feelings, and wish you the best of luck.  I also want to say that I think Silvertrader owes it to the customers here to attempt to adapt his system to the current market environment, because he cannot expect his subscribers to wait around this long for the market to change.  I hope that he will see the fact that no customer can sustain this sort of performance for this amount of time, and will prioritize the changing of the system that he claims to be working on- I believe he can, and that is my choice- I am not asking anyone to follow my feelings or persuade them otherwise.

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murat wrote: 26 April 2011 13:56

Jaycee,

I joined in July 2010 and I cancelled my subscription mid-February 2011. There were two reason for doing it:

1) system became very unreliable, there were to many changes happening on fly without seeing any positive outcome

2) I have foreseen new stoploss managment rules would have even a multiplier effect on the losses due to reduced return ratio.

The risk of staying in would be taking risk of account blow which  would be end of forex for me. I have no itentions of re-funding my account.

I traded signals half the recomended position size and further reduced it after loosing 3/4 of my account. Overall, I  lost almost half of my account. 

I decided to cancel my subscription and trade on my own with only a few simple  rules: One currency (EU), one currency unit size and  I was going to risk as much as the subscription fee that I pay for this site for the whole month.

I did not have epic wins but I did not have any loosing month either. I am OK with a small steady growing account. 

I still believe Silvertrader is an honest person and not scam but I witnessed that he lost his motivation, energy and concentration in the process. 

I was the first to respond to your post with an opposite view but I am not an affiliate. Those were my honest opinions which made sense at that time.  Now we are both out and share the same sentiment.

Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

 

murat

 

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jaycee wrote: 26 April 2011 12:19

This will be my last post
 
My subscription is cancelled
 
In my very first post when I opened this thread I said how suspicious and sceptical I was at the Performance Review figures presented and that they seemed to represent a “ fairy tale “ curve fitted back testing scenario and not real world trading
......   have another look at post 1   ....   I said much more and should have listened to myself !
Well the figures on the Performance Review of the actual witnessed live trading do now seem to confirm my suspicions
 
The fact the service provider has not / will not implement a system that auto updates these figures despite all the forum complaints says a lot
The updating immediately of profit trades and the lack of loss trades until the end of the month says a lot more ...   it is not in his interest to advertise the losses
To add insult to injury the figures presented are clearly not as realised as pointed out in many posts
To claim, as is the case, that this is due to some “ technical difficulties “ is remarkable considering that the whole signal service is supposed to be based on advanced computing technology   ....    yet they can’t ( read won’t ) do the simple things
It has been noted in posts the apparent lack of interest from the service provider ......   clearly too involved in the next fairy tale ?
 
Most who bother to read the forum will know in the 9 months I have been live trading the signals I have lost my first account completely and am very negative on the second
The performance has basically been diabolical and the outcome painful and costly
 
The so called advanced “ system “ producing the signals clearly has no more “ predictive “ power than a coin toss
In fact the latter with good money management would have likely fared better
 
It’s taken me a long time ( too long ) to realise that my initial doubts were well founded and cost me a bucket load of money in not waking up earlier and smelling what is being peddled here
 
Last post for me   ....    definitely, no replies    .....   so all the affiliates with hidden agendas etc. do your usual defending, this will surely rattle some feathers      ......    I care not one bit    .....    accuse me of posting in this manner as “ sour grapes “ .....   absolutely, but I care not one bit
 
I just hope any would be subscribers take the time to understand exactly what they will be signing up for   ....     seems I did but then ignored myself !  
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jaycee wrote: 30 September 2010 8:17

I am posting this here and also on the “ Postion Sizing ? “ thread as comments are relevant to both   ....   and sorry for rambling on, most that have been here for 3 month  will already know what I am about to report, newbie’s may find some of it enlightening   ....    or not LOL !
 
For new members I suggest you read the previous posts in the Trial Period Thoughts thread to understand more fully what I am about to say
 
To briefly summarise when I first signed up for the 30 day trial I was a total sceptic I pointed out that the first 2 years of recorded trades on the Performance Review could in no way be verified and the fact that no currency pair during this 2 year period had shown an overall loss looked just too good to be true.
Especially as now we are suddenly showing a lot of red across the board    .....    interestingly and strangely some losses have just recently been posted within those 2 years not previously indicated ( Silvertrader has posted a reason for it )
I also considered ( as does Silvertrader himself ) a 30 day trial was not long enough to evaluate this system, so to evaluate it correctly I would have to pay for a further 2 months subscription ( albeit with a supposed money back guarantee )
 
I went as far as to suggest this whole set up was “ ripe “ for a scam ...   and I was rebuked by some for so doing.
 
I did however vow to complete the full 3 month trial to give the system a fair chance
My 3 months is now complete so I am back to update the thread
 
I started on the 28th June initially with a demo account
I traded all signals exactly as per the recommended lot sizing
As those who were around at that time will know the system started to suffer fairly large drawdowns and there was a fair degree of panic among new members at the time. However the system eventually found the turning points and recovered previous losses and more to close out most positions towards the end of August with a profit of about 30% for this ‘ swing ‘ or ‘ session ‘ as you may call it
 
At that point I thought maybe this just might work and went to a live account
 
Everyone around from that time will know the current ongoing ‘ session ‘ is in severe drawdown and at this time markets are not showing much sign of reversal.
There did not seem to be the same level of panic in the forum as previous, presumably all expecting another amazing reversal ...   well as of now it has not happened and some are now reporting having no further margin on accounts to continue trading signals, some have closed out all positions with large losses.
 
Like others I have no margin left to trade, but as yet have not closed out the remaining open positions, I have approx 35 still open, though some are very near stoploss levels
Silvertraders advice to those in this situation is to not trade any further signals ....   hmmm, well simply no choice here with no margin.
The only way my account can currently recover is for the markets to do an immediate direction change and the remaining signals to produce an exceptional pip profit, otherwise the signals will get stopped or closed at small profit leaving me with little or no remaining account balance and not enough money to start taking signals again
 
So what are my impressions after 3 months ?
Has the system failed ?
 
The system goes against everything the “ forex educators “ would tell us .. don’t trade against the trend ( we are ) .. don’t add to losing positions ( we are ) .. don’t try to pick tops or bottoms ( we are )
So it should not really be a surprise to have to suffer some degree of pain until the market eventually turns in the anticipated direction, but if you can stick it out the system has shown in the first of my ‘ sessions ‘ that when the markets do eventually turn it appears to be able to recover losses very quickly and deliver positive results overall ( note the ‘ eventually ‘ here )    .... so no failure in this respect
 
What has failed to date, and failed badly, is what has always been the most important aspect of trading   ...   the money management   .... the recommended lot sizes when combined with the large number of signals produced is simply too large to withstand what Silvertrader would describe as an “ exceptional “ drawdown period, as now leaving many with a vastly depleted or a none tradable account
I disagree about this being exceptional, look at any chart and the current trending and consolidation etc is no different to any other period, and certainly no different to the period covered by the Performance Review.
The system currently has us on the wrong side of the trend ....   simple
 
So whilst 3 months is not a long time in this business what are my current conclusions on the system?
Everything to do with forex is difficult and picking tops and bottoms has always probably been the most difficult of all
If you look at any longer time frame chart it is obvious that after a trend changes direction there are large numbers of pips to be had until it changes again, it’s so simple ( isn’t it .. why are we retail traders all not millionaires ? LOL ) ....  because everyone attempting this method of trading suffers the same problem as we are now suffering ....  finding the change of direction point before you blow up your account !   ....   and this is all about the money management which for me is wrong as it is currently recommended.
Large institutional traders have very deep pockets to withstand these situations, we mere mortals do not.
 
If the Performance Review figures are to be believed as true then the system has shown historically it can produce, and produce very good returns, but the recent events begs the question how many times during the review period would an account be in severe drawdown and near being non operative or blown ?   ....    simply showing month end pip profits does not give anywhere near a full picture of how an account would have performed in real time, it may well have been the case such an account might have had no margin available to continue placing trades and hence never be able to realize the number of pips stated.
 
As of now if you are unlucky to start off with a bad loss you are really up against it to recover without re financing
 
Oh yes   ...   and what about that potential “ scam “ ?
Well all signals etc have been delivered as stated, support has been immediate, so everything in these respects looks legit.
The real “ scam “ here of course could be that the non verifiable historical performance review figures are a work of fiction or simply unachievable in real time and the system eventually proves itself not to work long time as portrayed   ....   but only time will tell this
 
So what am I going to do ?    ......   re finance and reduce the lot size by 50%    ....   as for compounding, not yet sure, will try to get into profit first !
 
Jaycee
 
 
 
 
 
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jaycee wrote: 12 August 2010 16:07

Yes still here and following along, getting ready to eat humble pie  ....   I hope  :-)

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jaycee wrote: 12 August 2010 16:06

Yes still here and following along, getting ready to eat humble pie  ....   I hope  :-)

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aztrades wrote: 12 August 2010 13:43

Hi murat,

That looks about right.  And if you used the recommended size, it would have been 18% drawdown and 60% open gain!  Even better!

I wonder if jaycee is still with us?

Regards,

AZ

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murat wrote: 12 August 2010 12:29

 Time to re-visit this topic I guess.  I am on 32nd day of my live trading with this system. I am trading 1/2 of the recommended position size, my account has 9% drawdawn  and %30 floating gain at the moment. 

murat

 

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jaycee wrote: 28 July 2010 11:15

Hi Silvertrader

Yes, of course the 3 different subscriber levels creates a problem I never even thought of

jaycee

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silvertrader wrote: 28 July 2010 11:03

Jaycee, if you say that you're doing everything correctly then I have to take it at face value as I'm in no position to verify its opposite. Individual results may vary but yours are way off the normal variation boundaries. Still, my offer stands and you can accept anytime.

As far as I know, Oanda offers a Master/Client account system, which I tested but it was practically useless and it is also not the optimal solution we're talking about. I'll ask Oanda whether there is a possibility to provide "view only" login for multiple users, I have my doubts but I'll check it. On the other hand, life is not as simple as you think. We have 3 different subscriber levels and how could be technically possible to separate the trades within one master account, so that Basic or Premium subscribers would see only the trades for the currency pairs they signed up for?

We're continuously seeking solutions that if implemented would improve the user experience and we examine every idea or suggestion very seriously, but finding the right solution is not always as easy as it seems to be.

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