Forum >> Impending Seismic Shift In Currency Markets

Opened by: silvertrader
Opening date: 26 January 2010 17:01
Number of entries: 4
Last entry: 26 January 2010 17:01

silvertrader wrote: 27 January 2010 1:34

Hi Cheekypete,

First of all, welcome on board!

I checked out your account details and I see that you subscribed on Jan.25. The first thing I do not understand that you have an open position in EURGBP, although we had no signal for this cross in the last two days. On the other hand, we had signals for CHFJPY, NZDUSD, CADJPY and AUDJPY and you didn't mention these pairs, which means you're cherrypicking the signals. This is not a very good idea. Our system should be evaluated and traded as a whole, and if you don't treat it as such and don't trade the signals this way, do not expect similar results. As we clearly state, our system is not 100% perfect, there is an appr.14% failure rate. You may be lucky and avoid most of the false signals this way, but you may ignore some real winners, too, which would completely change the overall picture of your performance.

It is quite difficult to evaluate your situation without knowing some essential information, like the size of your positions, your margin equity, your leverage, the trading platform, etc. But it is obvious that if you are concerned, you must be holding these positions on a real money account. Now, the rule of thumb in the case of ANY system is to test it first, preferably on a demo account. If you buy an EA, you will not implement it on a real money account immediately, will you? The prudent approach is to test it first on a demo account and if it really works, if you see and understand how it works and if you gained sufficient confidence in the system, then you can go for real. Forex trading is not a sprint, it is a marathon, and only those survive who are appropriately prepared for the challenges of the market. Drowdown is one of those. For example, I'm an amateur ballroom and argentine tango dancer. Once I made the mistake and went to a major event in a pair of new Supadance shoes (the non plus ultra category in dancing shoes) which I bought just a day before. Guess what? After less than an hour, I couldn't even walk, not to mention dance! Even the best dancing shoes need to be used for a while, before you get accustomed to them and can wear them confidently and comfortably for an all-night show.  Similarly, even the best forex trading system needs to be used and practiced with before you can apply it effectively and confidently in long-term real-money trading.

But back to your current situation. I don't know what your exact entry price levels are, but out of the mentioned three currency pairs, two are slightly in negative, one is slightly in positive territory so really no reason to panic at all, especially if you sized your positions accordingly and followed the instructions regarding gradual position building and if you obeyed basic money management rules. If you send me further details about your positions and your trading account to editor@sureforexsignals.com, I can help you evaluating your situation, and give you advice how to go on. But there is nothing wrong with those positions mentioned, and I think that the subsequent signals and then the upcoming trend moves will confirm this. The reason why I sent out the newsletter to subscribers is to inform all of you about my opinion regarding the possibility of an upcoming major trend in currency markets. With this knowledge and with our signals you can be looking forward this trend change confidently and won't be caught off-guard. You know, "chance favors the prepared mind!".

Best

Silvertrader

Cheekypete wrote: 26 January 2010 23:19

Hi,
 
I am a new customer and after reading your post am very concerned about my open positions taken from your signals. They are buy EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and short USD/CAD.
What should I do with these positions in light of your post looking at the posibility of a major breakout. I really dont want to be holding 3 losing positions in my first batch of trades with you and I dont want to have my first trades be the ones that  knock off the 100% success since October.
 
Your advice would be appreciated.
 
Thanks

Cheekypete wrote: 26 January 2010 23:18

Hi,
 
I am a new customer and after reading your post am very concerned about my open positions taken from your signals. They are buy EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and short USD/CAD.
What should I do with these positions in light of your post looking at the posibility of a major breakout. I really dont want to be holding 3 losing positions in my first batch of trades with you and I dont want to have my first trades be the ones that  knock off the 100% success since October.
 
Your advice would be appreciated.
 
Thanks

silvertrader wrote: 26 January 2010 17:01

This was sent out to our subscribers earlier today, but new subscribers are coming on board by the hour, and the only way to get the message to them is to post it on the forum:
 
Some of you subscribers may have noticed that the signals are being sent out with increasing frequency. Normally our system generates 8-12 long-term signals within a month. Although there are still some trading days ahead in January, we are already considerably above this number. On the other hand, the signals’ strength rating is getting weaker and weaker, and the performance is getting worse with every signals closed, sometimes with measly 200-300 pips. The signals’ life span is getting shorter, just like the amplitude of the price swings.
 
The most logical and plausible explanation of this phenomenon is that what we see in most currency pairs is a larger pattern triangle consolidation. As it is a well-known basic rule of technical analysis, triangle consolidations are always followed by a breakout and a larger trending move into one direction, so the change in the characteristics of our signals implies one thing: an impending seismic shift in currency markets.
 
The questions are: in which direction will this breakout happen, and what kind of trend do we have ahead of us in the coming weeks and months?
 
Considering the dollar’s recent breakout into the upside from its downtrend, the breakdown of EUR, gold and silver and the favored wave count of some well-known Elliotist experts, I think the most likely outcome could be a strong dollar uptrend, maybe up to 96 in the USDX. If this really happens, then we’re going to see an inverse move in EUR, AUD, and other currencies, plus the precious metals of course, as risk aversion will rule the market maybe till the end of the year.
 
The best case scenario for us would be to see one more upward retracement as a wave 2 correction up for EUR, gold and silver, before the prices resume their downtrend in a strong impulsive 3rd wave down. In the worst case this will not happen and prices may go into a nosedive, so we may have to close some of our open positions with a loss. Since we started our service in October 2009, we have had a 100% hit rate, which means none of our signals have been closed in negative territory. Losses will certainly come, as they are part of the game and our system is not perfect, but I still hope that the outcome will be a more favorable situation.
 
Either way, after the market decides about the direction of a future trend, the signals will be less frequent but deliver more pips than then latest ones.
 
Happy Trading!
 
 
Silvertrader