Forum >> Amount of trades taken by the system since nov 2009

Silvertrader, can you please advise the dates when the previous system modifications were made

Thank you

I have been aware of this for a while. The number of signals generated by the system has been increasing, while the accuracy has been decreasing. This means that we'll have to adjust the system's parameter settings to the current market environment. Our system is not a fully mechanical one, as I wrote many times before. Purely mechanical systems fail within months, simply because no system can perform equally well in different market conditions. I'll address this in more detail in a newsletter dedicated to risk management. We had to adjust the settings several times since we started to use this system. Now it's time to do it again. I simply did not want to change anything as long the system made profit every month ("don't try to fix something that works") but now obviously it is necessary again, so we'll do it this weekend. We have been running tests and simulations for a while, therefore we can do it within a few days. Historically, after major adjustments the system has never been very profitable for the following 1-2 months (expected performance is somewhere between 2-5,000 pips), and there should be a smaller number of signals..

Markets changing, ok , but look at that change in signal generation. We are on schedule for 600 signals this year at the current rate. That is 5 times more than the previous 2 years. I know we are not privy to the inner workings of how the system generates the signals, but got to wonder what has changed to have that sort of effect ?

Yes Jaycee, I have seen and thought about all of this in the past.  I have asked Silvertrader and he claims that this is all within normal specs.  The market is everchanging, and so is how the system deals with it.  I think the most important thing is that it has managed to remain profitable for so long.  This is the first non-profit month, but I think if we only have one in three years, it's still pretty commendable.  I know everyone thinks "it must be falling apart" but we simply cannot tell this soon, and perfect month over month gains forever has got to have an end at some point.

Also look at the year on year stats

2008                  115 signals total     + 71,464 pips     ( unverifiable records )

2009                  128 signals total     + 90,510 pips    ( unverifiable records )

2010 to date      445 signals             + 62,000 approx

Actually when you take the time to look back at the 2008 and 2009  archived signals and plot them out on a chart you will be amazed at just how accurate they predicted the market turning points compared to those of 2010 ... and many signals seem to have been closed out prematurely at breakeven avoiding stoplosses that would have resulted had they been allowed to run their natural course as they are now   ....   seems something has changed ?

8 2009 nov
16 2009 dec
18 2010 jan
26 2010 feb
59 2010 march
29 2010 april
47 2010 may
83 2010 june
45 2010 july
56 2010 august
33 September

looks like we are in the midst of a cycle what do you think?